The Move Forward party's stunning election victory has changed Thailand forever. The traditional elite will try everything they can to keep them out of power.
Jun 15, 2023·edited Jun 15, 2023Liked by Andrew MacGregor Marshall
Another interesting event that took place but isn't mentioned here, perhaps because it happened quite recently was Potjaman's lunch with Ung-Ing and other family members.
According to the article, the family expressed concerns about Thaksin coming home, fearing that he might be "fooled again" and wanted him to stop his plans and wait for a better time. There's even a direct quote about Ung-Ing not being ready to be PM and that Sretta is more suitable.
Thairath, Khaosod, Matichon, and even new media like The Standard all released that news report at almost the same time. Every word was also verbatim, so clearly Potjaman gave them the story.
The content is quite interesting, but the release was even more so. Clearly Potjaman wants to publicly lay the groundwork for Thaksin not coming home anytime soon.
Yeah I saw the story but didn't include it. Thaksin is still insisting he's coming though, and clearly Potjaman is not happy about it. If he doesn't come back in July it will be really embarrassing. I'm sure if PT does get to nominate a PM it will be Sretta.
I'm certain there was a deal before the election. However, my belief is that Pheu Thai learned their lesson afterwards and wouldn't try anything bizarre.
Is there any concrete proof of attempts of dealmaking in secret plot #2? It's believable that Thaksin would try, but as you noted, Ung-Ing seems genuinely opposed to that.
You mentioned attempts to kick MFP to the opposition and Pheu Thai will form a coalition without them. That is suicide. We all know it, and the only way that happens is if Thaksin sees this as his last chance. But a more likely scenario no one seems to be entertaining is more of a compromise coalition.
Pita gets disqualified as PM, and Pheu Thai leads the coalition. Notably, all the coalition members remain the same (meaning no Prawit or Anutin), however, Pheu Thai is now coalition leader and Sretta gets to be PM.
Doesn't this sound like a much easier story to tell? Pheu Thai can then tell the palace that they will keep MFP in check, and Thaksin gets to come home. Most importantly, this isn't suicidal for the party.
Yeah it's possible, but could they keep Thaksin out of jail if they don't have Prawit or a figure of similar stature among the elite to facilitate it? I think Pheu Thai will have to stick with MFP unless Pita can't get 376 votes and then they might seek an alternative coalition. Interesting times!
Seems like Thaksin can't communicate directly with Rama X, hence the weird public gestures. But if he can, the pitch is simple:
You want MFP out of power. I can keep them out of power. With Pheu Thai as coalition leader, we'll hold all the key posts, and we'll make sure MFP has no room to enact any real changes. Of course, for us to be in power and sell the public on it, we can't have Anutin or Prawit. They don't mean anything to you anyway. It's the only way this works.
I just posted my complaint about no new content despite so much happening in Thailand. I have been a paid subscriber from the beginning, but I just got charged again, but no new content so I have cancelled my paid subscription. He does post regularly on X, but he also promotes Secret Siam on X despite no new content for months. Not sure what is going on, but can only guess because he has been silent for so long here on SubStack. A huge disappointment.
Hi I have been a paid subscriber from the beginning and I loved your content but you have stopped posting. You are on X posting, but not here. You promote Secret Siam on X, but no new content here for months. So I guess you have abandoned this outlet. I have with regrets cancelled my paid subscription. I would like to have messaged you directly, but I do not see that option available, so I am posting my complaint in this forum instead.
Very helpful article. Thank you! Will you please follow up and report on the events of this past July and the prospects moving forward? From afar, it seems Thailand is more unsettled now than at any time in the past 50 years. Thank you again.
Btw who chooses Thai army chief? If the next chief will be not be choosen by Move Forward then there is no chance of any changes. Move Forward will rule but if they try to reform military, monarchy or business tycoons, the king will order new coup and thats all.
Another interesting event that took place but isn't mentioned here, perhaps because it happened quite recently was Potjaman's lunch with Ung-Ing and other family members.
According to the article, the family expressed concerns about Thaksin coming home, fearing that he might be "fooled again" and wanted him to stop his plans and wait for a better time. There's even a direct quote about Ung-Ing not being ready to be PM and that Sretta is more suitable.
Thairath, Khaosod, Matichon, and even new media like The Standard all released that news report at almost the same time. Every word was also verbatim, so clearly Potjaman gave them the story.
The content is quite interesting, but the release was even more so. Clearly Potjaman wants to publicly lay the groundwork for Thaksin not coming home anytime soon.
Yeah I saw the story but didn't include it. Thaksin is still insisting he's coming though, and clearly Potjaman is not happy about it. If he doesn't come back in July it will be really embarrassing. I'm sure if PT does get to nominate a PM it will be Sretta.
Thank you, Andrew. And I thought politics here in Malaysia was complicated....it's got nothing on Thailand.
Superbly well written. Very detailed and deep info and deep analysis. Thank you Andrew!
I'm certain there was a deal before the election. However, my belief is that Pheu Thai learned their lesson afterwards and wouldn't try anything bizarre.
Is there any concrete proof of attempts of dealmaking in secret plot #2? It's believable that Thaksin would try, but as you noted, Ung-Ing seems genuinely opposed to that.
You mentioned attempts to kick MFP to the opposition and Pheu Thai will form a coalition without them. That is suicide. We all know it, and the only way that happens is if Thaksin sees this as his last chance. But a more likely scenario no one seems to be entertaining is more of a compromise coalition.
Pita gets disqualified as PM, and Pheu Thai leads the coalition. Notably, all the coalition members remain the same (meaning no Prawit or Anutin), however, Pheu Thai is now coalition leader and Sretta gets to be PM.
Doesn't this sound like a much easier story to tell? Pheu Thai can then tell the palace that they will keep MFP in check, and Thaksin gets to come home. Most importantly, this isn't suicidal for the party.
Yeah it's possible, but could they keep Thaksin out of jail if they don't have Prawit or a figure of similar stature among the elite to facilitate it? I think Pheu Thai will have to stick with MFP unless Pita can't get 376 votes and then they might seek an alternative coalition. Interesting times!
Seems like Thaksin can't communicate directly with Rama X, hence the weird public gestures. But if he can, the pitch is simple:
You want MFP out of power. I can keep them out of power. With Pheu Thai as coalition leader, we'll hold all the key posts, and we'll make sure MFP has no room to enact any real changes. Of course, for us to be in power and sell the public on it, we can't have Anutin or Prawit. They don't mean anything to you anyway. It's the only way this works.
Professor MacGregor--Your most recent posting was on June 21 -- four months ago. When will you follow up with a report on the recent events?
I just posted my complaint about no new content despite so much happening in Thailand. I have been a paid subscriber from the beginning, but I just got charged again, but no new content so I have cancelled my paid subscription. He does post regularly on X, but he also promotes Secret Siam on X despite no new content for months. Not sure what is going on, but can only guess because he has been silent for so long here on SubStack. A huge disappointment.
I think Pita can be PM.He speak polite but his eyes are that of samurai.
Not only Pita,Thanarton will not forgive junta leaders.
Thaksin family will never forgive Newin Cidchob and his family too.
Dinosaurs will fade away near future.
Looks like 'Sengoku Jidai(戦国時代)'
Hi I have been a paid subscriber from the beginning and I loved your content but you have stopped posting. You are on X posting, but not here. You promote Secret Siam on X, but no new content here for months. So I guess you have abandoned this outlet. I have with regrets cancelled my paid subscription. I would like to have messaged you directly, but I do not see that option available, so I am posting my complaint in this forum instead.
Very helpful article. Thank you! Will you please follow up and report on the events of this past July and the prospects moving forward? From afar, it seems Thailand is more unsettled now than at any time in the past 50 years. Thank you again.
Btw who chooses Thai army chief? If the next chief will be not be choosen by Move Forward then there is no chance of any changes. Move Forward will rule but if they try to reform military, monarchy or business tycoons, the king will order new coup and thats all.